Development and validation of a novel life course microsimulation model linking diet to noncommunicable diseases

Project Details


Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) group a cluster of chronic
diseases that develop gradually throughout life. The globally rising
NCDs burden, driven by unhealthy diets, affects especially socioeconomic
disadvantaged population subgroups. Improving diets to
tackle NCDs burden is high on the agenda of all health organizations,
but we are lacking sound methodologies to accurately quantify the
drivers of diet-related NCDs risks over the lifetime. Previous models
have focused on individual NCDs and only among adults, not
considering the accumulation of risks throughout the life course, and
the impact of the early onset of obesity and diabetes, and their
interplay, with cardiovascular or cancer outcomes. This approach
underestimates the corresponding health impacts, further overlooking
potential differential effects by NCD type and population investigated.
The present research proposal builds on substantial prior work to
develop, for the first time to our knowledge, a life course obesitydiabetes-
CVD-cancer microsimulation model that links diet to NCDs
across the life course. The model will be developed and validated for
Belgium, using representative data and established resources, and
used to quantify diet-related NCDs burdens in Belgium, accounting
for population’s heterogeneity in various individual, socio-economic,
and geographical layers. The validated life-course model will
represent the foundation for future work in other areas including lowand
middle-income countries.
Effective start/end date1/01/2031/12/23


  • Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek: €570,596.00

IWETO expertise domain

  • B680-epidemiology