Improving disease prevention strategies of epidemic spread by integrating socio-spatial characterization of human mobility, environmental typology and mathematical modelling in an urban system of Cuba

Project Details


In contrast to the trend expected based on existing prediction models, dengue incidence was historically low during the pandemic mobility restrictions of 2020-2021 in most dengue endemic countries. This highlights that current transmission models do not correctly take human mobility into account. Within a pilot-study in Cienfuegos, South-Central Cuba, we will characterize the epidemiological spread and distribution of dengue outbreaks (2015-2025) in districts repeatedly involved in previous dengue outbreaks as initiating, case-concentrating or transmission sustaining areas. This will be linked with fine-grained mobility data and socio-spatial characterizations of commuting flows and population hubs where people are concentrated during day-time (time when transmission happens). This information, together with environmental risk-data, will be used to i) improve the accuracy of mathematical dengue models, ii) aiming to better understand the transmission process and iii) inform and improve the design of disease control strategies. The project will contribute to much-needed evidence-based guidance for public health actors on improved prevention strategies of epidemics dispersion and where and when to implement control measures.
Short titleDI-MOB
AcronymSOFI 2023
Effective start/end date1/01/2331/12/26


  • Flemish Government - Department of Economy, Science & Innovation: €600,000.00