Modelling the effectiveness of a mandatory salt reformulation policy in reducing the burden of diet-related cancers in Belgium

Colorectal and gastric cancer are some of the most prevalent diet-related cancers in the world, including in Belgium. Age, sex, socioeconomic factors, being overweight or obese, and unhealthy diets have been linked to an increased risk of developing these types of cancer. Nevertheless, little is known about the effect of diet over the life-course on risk accumulation and incidence of these diseases. Microsimulation models can be used to estimate the impact of prolonged exposure to (a combination of) certain dietary risk factors, from childhood to disease diagnosis. Moreover, these models can be used to quantify the health impact of various public health nutrition policies. Using innovative microsimulation models, this research has two main objectives. First, to estimate impact of salt consumption on the incidence and mortality of colorectal and gastric cancer in the Belgian population. Second, to quantify the impact of a mandatory reformulation policy targeting excess salt intake in reducing the burden of colorectal and gastric cancer in Belgium.