Bayesian estimation of true prevalence, sensitivity and specificity of indirect ELISA, Rose Bengal Test and Slow Agglutination Test for the diagnosis of brucellosis in sheep and goats in Bangladesh

The true prevalence of brucellosis and diagnostic test characteristics of three conditionally dependent serological tests were estimated using the Bayesian approach in goats and sheep populations of Bangladesh. Serum samples from a random selection of 636 goats and 1044 sheep were tested in parallel by indirect ELISA (iELISA), Rose Bengal Test (RBT) and Slow Agglutination Test (SAT). The true prevalence of brucellosis in goats and sheep were estimated as 1% (95% credibility interval (CrI): 0.7-1.8) and 1.2% (95% CrI: 0.6-2.2) respectively. The sensitivity of iELISA was 92.9% in goats and 92.0% in sheep with corresponding specificities of 96.5% and 99.5% respectively. The sensitivity and specificity estimates of RBT were 80.2% and 99.6% in goats and 82.8% and 98.3% in sheep. The sensitivity and specificity of SAT were 57.1% and 99.3% in goats and 72.0% and 98.6% in sheep. In this study, three conditionally dependent serological tests for the diagnosis of small ruminant brucellosis in Bangladesh were validated. Considerable conditional dependence between IELISA and RBT and between RBT and SAT was observed among sheep. The influence of the priors on the model fit and estimated parameter values was checked using sensitivity analysis. In multiple test validation, conditional dependence should not be ignored when the tests are in fact conditionally dependent.