Estimating the prevalence of infections in vector populations using pools of samples

N. Speybroeck, C.J. Williams, K.B. Lafia, B. Devleesschauwer, D. Berkvens

    Research output: Contribution to journalA1: Web of Science-article

    Abstract

    Several statistical methods have been proposed for estimating the infection prevalence based on pooled samples, but these methods generally presume the application of perfect diagnostic tests, which in practice do not exist. To optimize prevalence estimation based on pooled samples, currently available and new statistical models were described and compared. Three groups were tested: (a) Frequentist models, (b) Monte Carlo Markov-Chain (MCMC) Bayesian models, and (c) Exact Bayesian Computation (EBC) models. Simulated data allowed the comparison of the models, including testing the performance under complex situations such as imperfect tests with a sensitivity varying according to the pool weight. In addition, all models were applied to data derived from the literature, to demonstrate the influence of the model on real-prevalence estimates. All models were implemented in the freely available R and OpenBUGS software and are presented in Appendix S1. Bayesian models can flexibly take into account the imperfect sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test (as well as the influence of pool-related or external variables) and are therefore the method of choice for calculating population prevalence based on pooled samples. However, when using such complex models, very precise information on test characteristics is needed, which may in general not be available.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalMedical and Veterinary Entomology
    Volume26
    Issue number4
    Pages (from-to)361-371
    Number of pages11
    ISSN0269-283X
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2012

    Keywords

    • Vector-borne diseases
    • Prevalence
    • Estimation
    • Mathematical modeling
    • Models
    • Methodology
    • Infection rates
    • Sampling
    • Bayes theorem
    • Efficiency
    • Rapid diagnostic tests
    • Specificity
    • Sensitivity

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