Onset of infectiousness explains differences in transmissibility across Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages

EM Windels; CV Agüí; BC de Jong; CJ Meehan; C Loiseau; GA Goig; M Zwyer; S Borrell; D Brites; S Gagneux; T Stadler

doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2025.100821

Onset of infectiousness explains differences in transmissibility across Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages

EM Windels, CV Agüí, BC de Jong, CJ Meehan, C Loiseau, GA Goig, M Zwyer, S Borrell, D Brites, S Gagneux, T Stadler

Mycobacteriology

Research output: Contribution to journal › A1: Web of Science-article › peer-review

Abstract

Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) lineages show substantial variability in virulence, but the epidemiological consequences of this variability have not been studied in detail. Here, we aimed for a lineage-specific epidemiological characterization by applying phylodynamic models to genomic data from different countries, representing the most abundant MTBC lineages. Our results suggest that all lineages are associated with similar durations and levels of infectiousness, resulting in similar reproductive numbers. However, L1 and L6 are associated with a delayed onset of infectiousness, leading to longer periods between subsequent transmission events. Together, our findings highlight the role of MTBC genetic diversity in tuberculosis disease progression and transmission.

Original language	English
Article number	100821
Journal	Epidemics
Volume	51
Number of pages	10
ISSN	1755-4365
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2025.100821
Publication status	Published - 2025

Keywords

Mycobacterium tuberculosis
Phylodynamics
Transmission

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10.1016/j.epidem.2025.100821Licence: CC BY

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title = "Onset of infectiousness explains differences in transmissibility across Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages",

abstract = "Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) lineages show substantial variability in virulence, but the epidemiological consequences of this variability have not been studied in detail. Here, we aimed for a lineage-specific epidemiological characterization by applying phylodynamic models to genomic data from different countries, representing the most abundant MTBC lineages. Our results suggest that all lineages are associated with similar durations and levels of infectiousness, resulting in similar reproductive numbers. However, L1 and L6 are associated with a delayed onset of infectiousness, leading to longer periods between subsequent transmission events. Together, our findings highlight the role of MTBC genetic diversity in tuberculosis disease progression and transmission.",

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AU - Windels, EM

AU - Agüí, CV

AU - de Jong, BC

AU - Meehan, CJ

AU - Loiseau, C

AU - Goig, GA

AU - Zwyer, M

AU - Borrell, S

AU - Brites, D

AU - Gagneux, S

AU - Stadler, T

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N2 - Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) lineages show substantial variability in virulence, but the epidemiological consequences of this variability have not been studied in detail. Here, we aimed for a lineage-specific epidemiological characterization by applying phylodynamic models to genomic data from different countries, representing the most abundant MTBC lineages. Our results suggest that all lineages are associated with similar durations and levels of infectiousness, resulting in similar reproductive numbers. However, L1 and L6 are associated with a delayed onset of infectiousness, leading to longer periods between subsequent transmission events. Together, our findings highlight the role of MTBC genetic diversity in tuberculosis disease progression and transmission.

AB - Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) lineages show substantial variability in virulence, but the epidemiological consequences of this variability have not been studied in detail. Here, we aimed for a lineage-specific epidemiological characterization by applying phylodynamic models to genomic data from different countries, representing the most abundant MTBC lineages. Our results suggest that all lineages are associated with similar durations and levels of infectiousness, resulting in similar reproductive numbers. However, L1 and L6 are associated with a delayed onset of infectiousness, leading to longer periods between subsequent transmission events. Together, our findings highlight the role of MTBC genetic diversity in tuberculosis disease progression and transmission.

KW - Mycobacterium tuberculosis

KW - Phylodynamics

KW - Transmission

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Onset of infectiousness explains differences in transmissibility across Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages

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