Timing of influenza epidemics and vaccines in the American tropics, 2002-2008, 2011-2014

Lizette Olga Durand; Po-Yung Cheng; Rakhee Palekar; Wilfrido Clara; Jorge Jara; Mauricio Cerpa; Nathalie El Omeiri; Alba Maria Ropero-Alvarez; Juliana Barbosa Ramirez; Jenny Lara Araya; Belsy Acosta; Alfredo Bruno; Celina Calderon de Lozano; Leticia Del Carmen Castillo Signor; Maria Luisa Matute; Sandra Jackson-Betty; Kam Suan Mung; José Alberto Díaz-Quiñonez; Irma López-Martinez; Angel Balmaseda; Brechla Morneo Arévalo; Cynthia Vazquez; Victoria Gutierrez; Rebecca Garten; Marc-Alain Widdowson; Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner

doi:10.1111/irv.12371

Timing of influenza epidemics and vaccines in the American tropics, 2002-2008, 2011-2014

Lizette Olga Durand, Po-Yung Cheng, Rakhee Palekar, Wilfrido Clara, Jorge Jara, Mauricio Cerpa, Nathalie El Omeiri, Alba Maria Ropero-Alvarez, Juliana Barbosa Ramirez, Jenny Lara Araya, Belsy Acosta, Alfredo Bruno, Celina Calderon de Lozano, Leticia Del Carmen Castillo Signor, Maria Luisa Matute, Sandra Jackson-Betty, Kam Suan Mung, José Alberto Díaz-Quiñonez, Irma López-Martinez, Angel BalmasedaBrechla Morneo Arévalo, Cynthia Vazquez, Victoria Gutierrez, Rebecca Garten, Marc-Alain Widdowson, Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner

Institute of Tropical Medicine

Research output: Contribution to journal › A1: Web of Science-article › peer-review

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Influenza-associated illness results in increased morbidity and mortality in the Americas. These effects can be mitigated with an appropriately chosen and timed influenza vaccination campaign. To provide guidance in choosing the most suitable vaccine formulation and timing of administration, it is necessary to understand the timing of influenza seasonal epidemics.

OBJECTIVES: Our main objective was to determine whether influenza occurs in seasonal patterns in the American tropics and when these patterns occurred.

METHODS: Publicly available, monthly seasonal influenza data from the Pan American Health Organization and WHO, from countries in the American tropics, were obtained during 2002-2008 and 2011-2014 (excluding unseasonal pandemic activity during 2009-2010). For each country, we calculated the monthly proportion of samples that tested positive for influenza. We applied the monthly proportion data to a logistic regression model for each country.

RESULTS: We analyzed 2002-2008 and 2011-2014 influenza surveillance data from the American tropics and identified 13 (81%) of 16 countries with influenza epidemics that, on average, started during May and lasted 4 months.

CONCLUSIONS: The majority of countries in the American tropics have seasonal epidemics that start in May. Officials in these countries should consider the impact of vaccinating persons during April with the Southern Hemisphere formulation.

Original language	English
Journal	Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses
Volume	10
Issue number	3
Pages (from-to)	170-5
Number of pages	6
ISSN	1750-2640
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12371
Publication status	Published - 2016

Keywords

Brazil/epidemiology
Epidemiological Monitoring
Humans
Influenza Vaccines/chemistry
Influenza, Human/epidemiology
Nicaragua/epidemiology
Pandemics/prevention & control
Peru/epidemiology
Population Surveillance
Seasons
Time Factors
Tropical Climate
United States/epidemiology
Vaccination

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Durand, L. O., Cheng, P.-Y., Palekar, R., Clara, W., Jara, J., Cerpa, M., El Omeiri, N., Ropero-Alvarez, A. M., Ramirez, J. B., Araya, J. L., Acosta, B., Bruno, A., Calderon de Lozano, C., Castillo Signor, L. D. C., Matute, M. L., Jackson-Betty, S., Mung, K. S., Díaz-Quiñonez, J. A., López-Martinez, I., ... Azziz-Baumgartner, E. (2016). Timing of influenza epidemics and vaccines in the American tropics, 2002-2008, 2011-2014. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 10(3), 170-5. https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12371

@article{c61746f20beb4ab29c119b922a9744d9,

title = "Timing of influenza epidemics and vaccines in the American tropics, 2002-2008, 2011-2014",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: Influenza-associated illness results in increased morbidity and mortality in the Americas. These effects can be mitigated with an appropriately chosen and timed influenza vaccination campaign. To provide guidance in choosing the most suitable vaccine formulation and timing of administration, it is necessary to understand the timing of influenza seasonal epidemics.OBJECTIVES: Our main objective was to determine whether influenza occurs in seasonal patterns in the American tropics and when these patterns occurred.METHODS: Publicly available, monthly seasonal influenza data from the Pan American Health Organization and WHO, from countries in the American tropics, were obtained during 2002-2008 and 2011-2014 (excluding unseasonal pandemic activity during 2009-2010). For each country, we calculated the monthly proportion of samples that tested positive for influenza. We applied the monthly proportion data to a logistic regression model for each country.RESULTS: We analyzed 2002-2008 and 2011-2014 influenza surveillance data from the American tropics and identified 13 (81%) of 16 countries with influenza epidemics that, on average, started during May and lasted 4 months.CONCLUSIONS: The majority of countries in the American tropics have seasonal epidemics that start in May. Officials in these countries should consider the impact of vaccinating persons during April with the Southern Hemisphere formulation.",

keywords = "Brazil/epidemiology, Epidemiological Monitoring, Humans, Influenza Vaccines/chemistry, Influenza, Human/epidemiology, Nicaragua/epidemiology, Pandemics/prevention & control, Peru/epidemiology, Population Surveillance, Seasons, Time Factors, Tropical Climate, United States/epidemiology, Vaccination",

author = "Durand, {Lizette Olga} and Po-Yung Cheng and Rakhee Palekar and Wilfrido Clara and Jorge Jara and Mauricio Cerpa and {El Omeiri}, Nathalie and Ropero-Alvarez, {Alba Maria} and Ramirez, {Juliana Barbosa} and Araya, {Jenny Lara} and Belsy Acosta and Alfredo Bruno and {Calderon de Lozano}, Celina and {Castillo Signor}, {Leticia Del Carmen} and Matute, {Maria Luisa} and Sandra Jackson-Betty and Mung, {Kam Suan} and D{\'i}az-Qui{\~n}onez, {Jos{\'e} Alberto} and Irma L{\'o}pez-Martinez and Angel Balmaseda and Ar{\'e}valo, {Brechla Morneo} and Cynthia Vazquez and Victoria Gutierrez and Rebecca Garten and Marc-Alain Widdowson and Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner",

note = "FTX; DOAJ; {\textcopyright} 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.",

year = "2016",

doi = "10.1111/irv.12371",

language = "English",

volume = "10",

pages = "170--5",

journal = "Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses",

issn = "1750-2640",

publisher = "John Wiley & Sons",

number = "3",

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Durand, LO, Cheng, P-Y, Palekar, R, Clara, W, Jara, J, Cerpa, M, El Omeiri, N, Ropero-Alvarez, AM, Ramirez, JB, Araya, JL, Acosta, B, Bruno, A, Calderon de Lozano, C, Castillo Signor, LDC, Matute, ML, Jackson-Betty, S, Mung, KS, Díaz-Quiñonez, JA, López-Martinez, I, Balmaseda, A, Arévalo, BM, Vazquez, C, Gutierrez, V, Garten, R, Widdowson, M-A & Azziz-Baumgartner, E 2016, 'Timing of influenza epidemics and vaccines in the American tropics, 2002-2008, 2011-2014', Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 170-5. https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12371

TY - JOUR

T1 - Timing of influenza epidemics and vaccines in the American tropics, 2002-2008, 2011-2014

AU - Durand, Lizette Olga

AU - Cheng, Po-Yung

AU - Palekar, Rakhee

AU - Clara, Wilfrido

AU - Jara, Jorge

AU - Cerpa, Mauricio

AU - El Omeiri, Nathalie

AU - Ropero-Alvarez, Alba Maria

AU - Ramirez, Juliana Barbosa

AU - Araya, Jenny Lara

AU - Acosta, Belsy

AU - Bruno, Alfredo

AU - Calderon de Lozano, Celina

AU - Castillo Signor, Leticia Del Carmen

AU - Matute, Maria Luisa

AU - Jackson-Betty, Sandra

AU - Mung, Kam Suan

AU - Díaz-Quiñonez, José Alberto

AU - López-Martinez, Irma

AU - Balmaseda, Angel

AU - Arévalo, Brechla Morneo

AU - Vazquez, Cynthia

AU - Gutierrez, Victoria

AU - Garten, Rebecca

AU - Widdowson, Marc-Alain

AU - Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - BACKGROUND: Influenza-associated illness results in increased morbidity and mortality in the Americas. These effects can be mitigated with an appropriately chosen and timed influenza vaccination campaign. To provide guidance in choosing the most suitable vaccine formulation and timing of administration, it is necessary to understand the timing of influenza seasonal epidemics.OBJECTIVES: Our main objective was to determine whether influenza occurs in seasonal patterns in the American tropics and when these patterns occurred.METHODS: Publicly available, monthly seasonal influenza data from the Pan American Health Organization and WHO, from countries in the American tropics, were obtained during 2002-2008 and 2011-2014 (excluding unseasonal pandemic activity during 2009-2010). For each country, we calculated the monthly proportion of samples that tested positive for influenza. We applied the monthly proportion data to a logistic regression model for each country.RESULTS: We analyzed 2002-2008 and 2011-2014 influenza surveillance data from the American tropics and identified 13 (81%) of 16 countries with influenza epidemics that, on average, started during May and lasted 4 months.CONCLUSIONS: The majority of countries in the American tropics have seasonal epidemics that start in May. Officials in these countries should consider the impact of vaccinating persons during April with the Southern Hemisphere formulation.

AB - BACKGROUND: Influenza-associated illness results in increased morbidity and mortality in the Americas. These effects can be mitigated with an appropriately chosen and timed influenza vaccination campaign. To provide guidance in choosing the most suitable vaccine formulation and timing of administration, it is necessary to understand the timing of influenza seasonal epidemics.OBJECTIVES: Our main objective was to determine whether influenza occurs in seasonal patterns in the American tropics and when these patterns occurred.METHODS: Publicly available, monthly seasonal influenza data from the Pan American Health Organization and WHO, from countries in the American tropics, were obtained during 2002-2008 and 2011-2014 (excluding unseasonal pandemic activity during 2009-2010). For each country, we calculated the monthly proportion of samples that tested positive for influenza. We applied the monthly proportion data to a logistic regression model for each country.RESULTS: We analyzed 2002-2008 and 2011-2014 influenza surveillance data from the American tropics and identified 13 (81%) of 16 countries with influenza epidemics that, on average, started during May and lasted 4 months.CONCLUSIONS: The majority of countries in the American tropics have seasonal epidemics that start in May. Officials in these countries should consider the impact of vaccinating persons during April with the Southern Hemisphere formulation.

KW - Brazil/epidemiology

KW - Epidemiological Monitoring

KW - Humans

KW - Influenza Vaccines/chemistry

KW - Influenza, Human/epidemiology

KW - Nicaragua/epidemiology

KW - Pandemics/prevention & control

KW - Peru/epidemiology

KW - Population Surveillance

KW - Seasons

KW - Time Factors

KW - Tropical Climate

KW - United States/epidemiology

KW - Vaccination

U2 - 10.1111/irv.12371

DO - 10.1111/irv.12371

M3 - A1: Web of Science-article

C2 - 26701079

SN - 1750-2640

VL - 10

SP - 170

EP - 175

JO - Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

JF - Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

IS - 3

ER -

Timing of influenza epidemics and vaccines in the American tropics, 2002-2008, 2011-2014

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